Why Bitcoin’s historical pattern suggests a rough start for 2025

• Bitcoin could decline into the new year based on historical patterns.
• BTC has declined by 6.01% since the Christmas uptick.

Over the past week, Bitcoin [BTC] has traded against market expectations. During Christmas Eve, BTC saw considerable appreciation, rising from $92k to $99k.

The price movement initially planted optimism in the market, with investors expecting a strong run into the new year. However, Bitcoin has since experienced extreme volatility, hitting a low of $91,315.

These market conditions have prompted analysts to discuss BTC’s price movement into 2025. According to Alphractal, Bitcoin could see a sharp decline as we approach the new year based on historical cycles.

Analysis of Bitcoin’s price variation

Based on Alphractal analysis, Bitcoin has experienced mixed behavior between Christmas and New Year’s Eve over the years.

Source: Alphractal

Bitcoin has experienced both surges and declines. Since the 25th of December, BTC has dropped by 6.01%, from $99,881 to $93,879, at press time.

According to Alphractal, this decline may indicate a negative trend heading into the new year, based on historical patterns.

In past cycles, negative variations were observed during specific years, including 2012-2013, 2014-2015, 2017-2018, 2019-2020, and 2021-2022. These periods saw a negative trend in Bitcoin prices, with market behavior reflecting typical year-end volatility and uncertainties.

However, in some years, Bitcoin showed positive performance or modest variations. For example, 2013-2014 and 2015-2016 saw moderate appreciation.

Based on previous cycles, the end of 2024 may follow this negative pattern after the 6% drop since Christmas. Therefore, the new year could start with a negative trend, continuing into 2025.

What lies ahead for BTC

While historical patterns rarely reoccur, it’s essential to look at other market indicators and see what they say about BTC going into the new year.

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, and seems investors’ sentiment has turned bearish as they worry over crypto’s lack of clear direction.

Source: CryptoQuant

For example, Bitcoin’s long-term holder SOPR has declined from 4.5 to 1.8 suggesting long-term holders are less confident with the market and are willing to sell at a loss. This may cause downward pressure on prices, thus further extending this bearishness.

Source: Santiment

Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price Prediction 2025-2026

Additionally, Bitcoin’s Price Daily Active Addresses (DAA) divergence has remained negative over the past week. This indicates a decline in the number of active addresses and participants. Therefore, the current price might be relatively high and could be retraced to meet actual demand.

In conclusion, Bitcoin might experience a drop going into the new year. If the historical pattern repeats, BTC could drop to $91,500. However, if buyers enter the market anticipating a rally post-new year as participants return, Bitcoin could reclaim $95,400.