- Bitcoin remains stuck below $100K, despite 81% odds of reaching it.
- Bears have shown that hitting this milestone won’t be easy—patience will be tested.
Bitcoin [BTC] investors have endured a rollercoaster week, with high hopes for the cryptocurrency’s historic $100K milestone. Despite top analysts assigning an 81% probability of BTC reaching this target, the weekend ended without the anticipated breakthrough, keeping the market on edge.
The last 24 hours have only added to the drama. A staggering 160,527 traders were liquidated, amounting to $376.22 million in losses, as volatile price movements disrupted both long and short positions.
This surge in liquidations highlights the intense volatility gripping the derivative market. Is this a warning sign of a larger market shift on the horizon?
Long-squeeze triggered as bears’ strategy plays out
Current long/short ratios reveal a bearish tilt, with traders heavily shorting Bitcoin.
This imbalance comes with a warning: excessive leverage in the derivatives market could spark sudden corrections or even a long squeeze – a hidden catalyst that may be driving Bitcoin’s recent reversal.
In the past 24 hours, over $234 million in long positions were liquidated – a staggering 65.96% increase compared to $141 million in short liquidations.
Source : Coinglass
This stark disparity underscores the volatility in play as “longs” (bets on price increases) were forced to close positions following Bitcoin’s dip from its all-time high of $99,317 just two days ago.
In simple terms, as Bitcoin experienced a minor downturn, traders exited their positions to minimize losses – a rational move given the high stakes at current price levels. Bears seized this opportunity, likely triggering a cascade of long liquidations.
This aligns with the current bull cycle, where, despite rapid gains, BTC has avoided overheating speculation due to the dominance of long positions.
However, even a minor deviation from the bullish path provided an opening for bears to exert pressure. The result? A long squeeze that forced traders to liquidate their positions, triggering a near 2% slide in Bitcoin’s price.
While a breakthrough to $100K could still materialize, the volatility in the market is becoming increasingly evident.
As BTC nears a historic milestone, investors are adjusting their portfolios – either shifting attention to other high-cap assets or cashing out with impressive gains.
If this trend continues, every time BTC posts a new ATH, bears are likely to capitalize on the resulting volatility, triggering long squeezes. This could push BTC into a prolonged loop unless an external catalyst disrupts this pattern and sparks a breakout.
The $100K dream could be on hold for now
Interestingly, in the past two days, whales have deposited approximately 10K Bitcoins at a price of $98,121, amounting to a significant total of around $981 million.
Source : IntoTheBlock
More notably, this reinforces AMBCrypto’s earlier analysis, highlighting how bears capitalized on the seismic shift as whales offloaded their holdings.
The maneuver triggered a price dip, which allowed short-sellers to seize control. This forced long positions to liquidate in an effort to minimize risk.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25
Thus, while anticipation for the $100K milestone is building, it won’t be a straightforward journey.
Each time Bitcoin nears that price target, a wave of departures – from large HODLers, swing traders, or miners – creates the perfect environment for bears to take charge. This cycle traps Bitcoin in an ongoing loop, preventing a smooth ascent to its historic milestone.
