- Bitcoin and Ethereum netflows pictured similar patterns around Christmas
- Open Interest trends revealed wary sentiment among traders
Bitcoin [BTC] tends to see a Santa Claus rally in the week leading up to Christmas, before relinquishing those gains the following week. This has been the trend in recent years, starting in 2021. The year before that did not conform to this pattern.
This means that alongside Bitcoin, other major altcoins such as Ethereum [ETH] and Dogecoin [DOGE] have tended to see their prices slashed in the week following Christmas. Will this trend continue in 2024?
Major assets’ exchange flows and the price correlation
Source: Santiment
AMBCrypto examined the flow of BTC and ETH to and from exchanges around Christmas time. A 7-day moving average was used to smooth out the readings. In 2023, BTC saw the 7-day MA reach 1,481 BTC inflow on 22 December, and the 7-day ETH inflow was 32,805. A few days later, they went the opposite way.
The moving averages for exchange netflows for BTC and ETH reached -5,915 and -9,626 for BTC and ETH, respectively, on 26 and 27 December – A sign of accumulation.
Meanwhile, the price trends for the tokens were sideways for BTC and a 10% hike for ETH, leading into the final week of the year. Together, the metrics revealed that participants preferred to send tokens to exchanges to book some profits, and accumulated more the following week.
2024 brought a Santa Claus rally to crypto, taking BTC to $99.6k, ETH to $3,560, and DOGE to $0.342 – Gaining by 6%-9% in three days leading up to Christmas.
At press time, exchange netflows were trending higher, showing that selling pressure was likely imminent. Meanwhile, the prices of BTC and ETH have already fallen 5% and 6% respectively. Dogecoin shed closer to 9%.
Open Interest showed muted sentiment leading into the festive week
Source: Santiment
The Open Interest of Dogecoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin can be compared too. In 2023, the OI fell sharply from 22 to 25 December, before recovering quickly in the first two weeks of January.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025-26
In 2024, 17 December saw a sharp OI fall. This can be attributed to the market-wide drop, following bearish news from the Federal Reserve that brought the Dow down 1,250 points last Wednesday.
The OI continued to meander sideways, a strong hint that market participants remained sidelined. Traders could look for long entries. And, an OI and volume surge in the coming days could see the early 2024 gains repeated in January 2025.
