- Long-term BTC holders have continued to cash in.
- This has contributed to BTC’s struggle to break its psychological resistance.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] long-term holders have had a huge sell-off in the past 30 days, marking the largest since April. This comes as Bitcoin hovers near $93,000, sparking questions about whether these moves signal profit-taking or forewarn a potential market correction.
With key indicators like the Fear & Greed Index and HODL Waves showing noteworthy trends, this sell-off could have implications for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Long-term holders shed Bitcoin amid price surge
The offloading by long-term holders coincides with Bitcoin’s parabolic rise to $93,000 earlier this month, fueling speculation about the motivations behind such a massive sell-off.
Analysis of the Long Term Holders Net position Change chart on CryptoQuant showed that it was negative. Over 728,000 BTC has been sold in the past 30 days, marking the largest sell-off since April.
Source: CryptoQuant
In April, a similar sell-off by long-term holders triggered a short-term price correction, raising questions about whether history could repeat itself. With Bitcoin still holding above $90,000, the market’s resilience is being tested.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index hits extreme levels
Another factor adding to the narrative is the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, which currently shows a reading of around 75, reflecting “extreme greed” in the market. Such sentiment often precedes corrections, as overconfidence among investors can lead to unsustainable price action.
The index, combined with the sell-off from long-term holders, suggests caution may be warranted in the short term.
Source: Glassnode
Younger coins dominate as HODL Waves shift
Data from Glassnode’s Realized Cap HODL Waves indicates a significant shift in Bitcoin ownership, with younger coins—those held for less than six months—making up a larger share of the market. This suggests new entrants or traders are absorbing the selling pressure from long-term holders, stabilizing Bitcoin’s price for now.
However, the question remains whether these newer market participants will have the same conviction if volatility spikes.
Source: Glassnode
Outlook: caution or optimism?
While Bitcoin’s recent sell-off by long-term holders is notable, it doesn’t necessarily signal a bearish trend. The market has shown resilience in holding key levels, with $90,000 acting as critical support.
However, the confluence of extreme greed in the market and heavy profit-taking raises the risk of increased volatility.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for Bitcoin now stands at 61.44, reflecting that the asset is approaching overbought levels. Historically, these metrics tend to align with profit-taking behavior, especially when prices breach significant psychological thresholds.
Read Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024-25
As Bitcoin edges closer to $100,000—a psychological resistance level—investors should keep a close watch on the behavior of both long-term holders and newer participants.
Whether this is a mere consolidation phase or a prelude to a correction remains to be seen. For now, the Bitcoin market is walking a fine line between bullish momentum and cautious retracement.
